Background: Estimates of rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the U.S. appear higher in years with more rotavirus activity. We hypothesized rotavirus VE is constant over time but appears to vary as a function of temporal variation in local rotavirus cases and/or misclassified diagnoses. Methods: We analyzed 6 years of data from eight U.S. surveillance sites on 8-59-month olds with acute gastroenteritis symptoms. Children's stool samples were tested via enzyme immunoassay (EIA); rotavirus-positive results were confirmed with molecular testing at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We defined rotavirus gastroenteritis cases by either positive on-site EIA results alone or positive EIA with CDC confirmation. For each case definition, we estimated VE against any rotavirus gastroenteritis, moderate-to-severe disease, and hospitalization using two mixed-effect regression models: the first including year plus a year–vaccination interaction, and the second including annual percent of rotavirus positive tests plus a percent positive–vaccination interaction. We used multiple overimputation to bias-adjust for misclassification of cases defined by positive EIA alone. Results: Estimates of annual rotavirus VE against all outcomes fluctuated temporally, particularly when we defined cases by on-site EIA alone and used a year–vaccination interaction. Use of confirmatory testing to define cases reduced, but did not eliminate, fluctuations. Temporal fluctuations in VE estimates further attenuated when we used a percent positive–vaccination interaction. Fluctuations persisted until bias-adjustment for diagnostic misclassification. Conclusions: Both controlling for time-varying rotavirus activity and bias-adjusting for diagnostic misclassification are critical for estimating the most valid annual rotavirus VE. Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.
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