Abstract Energy use is one of the largest drivers of climate change, but the large share of energy used for space heating and cooling is also driven by climate change. Demand for energy, particularly cooling, is important for long-range infrastructure planning. Urban areas represent a very small proportion of total land, but usually consume the majority of energy. In this work, statistical, top-down approaches are used to model residential and commercial urban energy demand changes...
1h
Abstract Research into the needs for adaptation will continue to grow as our sophistication in how we think the myriad of issues improves. The framework here is created to help organize our thoughts about how to proceed in a world dominated by uncertainty and confounding factors.
13h
Abstract The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the predominant interannual pattern of climate variability in the world and may become extreme approximately once every 20 years. Climate-forced interannual variability in fecundity rates of long-lived species are well-studied, but the effect of extreme events is less clear. Here, we analyzed the effect of the extreme 2015–16 El Niño event on three long-lived sea turtle species in a region highly influenced by ENSO. The effect...
1d
Abstract Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, commonly used in stormwater infrastructure design to represent characteristics of extreme rainfall, are gradually being updated to reflect expected changes in rainfall under climate change. The modeling choices used for updating lead to large uncertainties; however, it is unclear how much these uncertainties affect the design and cost of stormwater systems. This study investigates how the choice of spatial resolution of the regional...
1d
Abstract The transient climate response (TCR) is the change in global mean temperature at the time of an exogenous doubling in atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing at a rate of 1% per year. A problem with estimating the TCR using observational data is that observed CO2 concentrations depend in turn on temperature. Therefore, the observed concentration data are endogenous, potentially leading to simultaneous causation bias of regression estimates of the TCR. We address this...
2d
Abstract Soil respiration universally exhibits exponential temperature dependence (Respiration = R0 eβT & Q10 = e10β), and temperature sensitivity (Q10) and soil organic carbon quality (as expressed by basal respiration rate at 0 °C, R0) are the key parameters. Despite their importance for predicting the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and quantifying the magnitude of soil CO2 efflux, the controlling factors of temperature sensitivity and soil carbon quality...
2d
Abstract Studies about climate change and the variation of the spatial pattern of war are extremely scarce in academia at present. Therefore, the temperature series and battle coordinates in imperial China from AD 5 to 1911 are integrated in this research, and their long-term quantitative relationship is examined by employing mathematical statistics such as one-way ANOVA, as well as the spatial analytical tool, standard deviational ellipse (SDE) in ArcGIS. Meanwhile, the temperature...
5d
Abstract India’s commitment to Paris Climate Change Agreement through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will require the energy system to gradually move away from fossil fuels. The current energy system is witnessing a transformation to achieve these through renewable energy targets and enhanced energy efficiency (EE) actions in all sectors. More stringent global GHG mitigation targets of 2 °C and well below 2 °C regimes would impose further challenges and uncertainties...
6d
Abstract Public climate conversations are inattentive to how differences in social location and culture shape people’s knowledge of and responses to climate change. Instead, emphases on climate apathy and climate skepticism overrepresent privileged sensibilities, marginalizing those who fall outside of what Black feminist theorist Audre Lorde calls “the mythical norm” (1987). In so doing, predominant approaches obscure forms of climate engagement that do not resemble researcher...
6d
Abstract Experiences with an algorithmic technique—cross-impact balances (CIB)—for exploring scenarios rather than relying solely upon expert intuitions are discussed. With CIB, two types of uncertainty for climate change research have been explored: (1) socio-technical uncertainties not represented explicitly in integrated assessment models (sometimes called “context scenarios”) and (2) sampling the space of possible futures to model. By applying CIB retrospectively and prospectively...
1w
The original article has been updated. Unfortunately the uncorrected version of the article was published online. This has been corrected.
1w
Abstract Rural coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In the USA, much energy is devoted to conserving rural coastal ecosystems by promoting their adaptation to climate change. However, these areas are also home to vulnerable and underserved communities who can be challenging to engage in climate adaptation discussions. Churches—as trusted social institutions—may offer a structure through which government decision-makers and rural residents can engage to...
2w
Abstract Climate change and variability threaten the sustainability of agricultural and food production, especially in agrarian communities. In Southern Africa, rainfall is expected to decline by almost 10% by the year 2050 and the largest increase in temperature can be experienced. Despite the potential risks of climate change on agricultural productivity, Botswana does not have a dedicated policy to respond to climate change. Furthermore, there is a dearth of research done in...
2w
Abstract The 2012 Midwestern US drought resulted in major impacts to farmers and the public. Extreme events like drought will continue in the future due to climate change. We studied how the elite national press—New York Times (NYT) and Wall Street Journal (WSJ)—covered the 2012 Midwestern drought, how climate change was addressed, and how NYT and WSJ articles differed from each other and agricultural trade publication (ATP) article coverage before, during, and after the drought....
2w
Abstract British pre-industrial economic growth has traditionally been analysed from the Malthusian point of view and other more optimistic approaches, but in many cases, ignoring environmental factors. This article explores the inclusion of the climate in this general debate, focusing on one of the colder periods of the last 500 years, known as the Maunder Minimum. The provisional results suggest that climate change and the resulting adaptations may have influenced the start of...
2w
Abstract Complex policy problems such as climate change that spill over multiple issue areas or jurisdictions often require new policy approaches because sectoral (or territorial) policies are not designed to tackle the issue of policy spillovers. Yet, cross-sectoral policies upset the status quo and invite a political backlash from departments and individuals who fear erosion of their power, authority, budgets, or status. We offer one of the first studies to systematically examine...
2w
Abstract Rising sea levels have increased flood risk in coastal communities on both the east and west coasts of the USA. The goal of this analysis is to approximate flood defense costs from cyclonic flooding as a partial means to evaluate the resilience of coastal communities. Storm surge models were previously constructed via an established approach to represent historical and future coastal Louisiana landscapes and associated flood patterns. Coastal flooding was also previously...
2w
Abstract Researchers have documented that observations of climate change impacts reported by indigenous peoples and local communities coincide with scientific measurements of such impacts. However, insights from indigenous and local knowledge are not yet completely included in international climate change research and policy fora. In this article, we compare observations of climate change impacts detected by indigenous peoples and local communities from around the world and collected...
2w
Sensitivity of future climate change and uncertainty over India to performance-based model weighting
Abstract Multi-model ensembles are used to understand present and future climate change. Differences between individual model projections of future climates result in uncertainty in what we can expect in the future. Typically, models from such ensembles are treated equally but two reasons have been used to move away from this model democracy. The first reason is that models may not be equally skillful and therefore, their projections would need to be weighted differently based...
2w
Abstract Climate change has impacted people, communities, and industries around the world, including sport and physical activity. Drawing from Stern’s (J Soc Issues 56(3):407–424, 2000) value-belief-norm theory, which focuses on identifying predictors of environmentally significant behavior, the purpose of this study was to explore the degree to which physical activity participation is associated with pro-environmental attitudes. The authors collected data at the county level in...
2w
Abstract Climate change may affect the US electricity system through changes in electricity demand, mediated by increases in average surface temperature, and through changes in electricity supply, mediated by changes in both surface temperature and regional water availability. By coupling projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) with a state-of-the-art US electricity system model—the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)—this study evaluates both the isolated...
2w
Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on wheat were assessed for Kulmsa area in central highlands of Ethiopia using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)—wheat model. The objectives were to (i) evaluate the performance of wheat under increased temperatures with or without changes in rainfall and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and (ii) assess the response of different wheat cultivars to projected future climates under improved management practices (optimal...
2w
Abstract Global warming is expected to increase droughts and heatwaves, and consequently fire danger in southern Europe in the forthcoming decades. However, an assessment of the uncertainties associated with this general trend at regional scales, relevant to decision-making, is still missing. This study aims at assessing potential climate change impacts on fire danger over France through the projection of the widely used Fire Weather Index (FWI) and at quantifying the different...
2w
Abstract In Mediterranean climates, many deciduous fruit trees are unable to meet their seasonal chill requirements, a situation that may be exacerbated by global warming. Modeling approaches can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on tree crops for the past and forecast possible impacts for the future. We apply modeling approaches to assess climate change impacts on Chilean fruit production in nine major agricultural sites. Using a weather generator, we obtained 100...
2w
When climate change is not blamed: the politics of disaster attribution in international perspective
Abstract Analyzing the politics and policy implications in Brazil of attributing extreme weather events to climate change, we argue for greater place-based sensitivity in recommendations for how to frame extreme weather events relative to climate change. Identifying geographical limits of current recommendations to emphasize the climate role in such events, we explore Brazilian framings of the two tragic national disasters, as apparent in newspaper coverage of climate change. We...
3w
Abstract Modelling continental freshwater dynamics is expected to be challenging in regions with considerable influence of multi-scale global climatic drivers. An assessment of the interplay between these climatic drivers (e.g. El-Niño Southern Oscillation-ENSO) that influence hydro-climatic conditions and hydrological processes is therefore required to optimize predictive frameworks. The main aim of this study is to assess the impacts of eleven key climate modes describing oceanic...
4w
The original article has been updated. The article was published with a typo in one of the author names. This has been corrected.
4w
Abstract The determinants of farmers’ decisions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are currently not well understood. This study takes several new angles in investigating farmers’ climate change mitigation behaviour. Based on two identical surveys among representative samples of Dutch farmers, this study examines the underlying determinants and motivating factors for three different types of climate change mitigation measures on farms: energy saving, the production of renewable...
Dec 2019
Abstract We investigated the spring frost risk over the main apple production areas in Japan under future climates using multiple sets of global circulation models and scenarios. Frost risk was judged by the daily minimum air temperature. Apple phenology was estimated with a phenology model under future meteorological conditions. Since spring cold hardiness of apple trees depends on the phenophase, we took the effect into consideration by decomposing the season into three phenophases....
Dec 2019
The original article has been corrected.
Dec 2019
Abstract Urban areas around the world are increasingly investing in networks of urban forests, gardens, and other forms of green infrastructure for their benefits, including enhanced livability, sustainability, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. Proactive planning for climate change requires anticipating potential climate change impacts to green infrastructure and adjusting management strategies accordingly. We apply climate change projections for the Midwest US state...
Dec 2019
Abstract Though a small fraction of the US citizenry, agricultural producers are directly responsible for the stewardship of almost half of the country’s land. This group is therefore an especially important one to understand from the standpoint of how they process and respond to science as it relates to agroecological phenomena. Data from a sample (n = 111) of farmers and ranchers located in the US state of Colorado are used to expand our understanding of how food producers process...
Dec 2019
Abstract In line with sustainability issues, we are currently seeing a transition towards a lower consumption of animal protein. How ongoing gradual rearrangements in protein patterns impact sustainability and climatic change remains unknown. We used data from a French representative survey and selected for each individual the dual substitution of a serving of a protein food that most improved nutritional adequacy (using the probabilistic PANDiet score), with an increase in the...
Dec 2019
Abstract For the Mesoamerican Alliance of Peoples and Forests, the idea of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) has opened a window for advancing member groups’ claims to territory and community well-being, despite concerns that REDD+ could proceed as development-as-usual in practice. However, the claims underpinning the engagement of this Indigenous and forest peoples’ network in international climate finance processes reflect conceptualizations...
Dec 2019
Abstract Advertising by fossil fuel companies is a ubiquitous element of modern political life. Promotional campaigns in the service of a corporation’s position toward environmental issues such as climate change are prevalent in the oil and gas sectors, where corporate image is seen as a valuable asset in managing risk, controlling negative media attention, and overcoming resistance by antagonistic civil society groups. This article assesses advertising expenditures by five major...
Dec 2019
Abstract Energy scenarios describing transition pathways towards low-emission energy systems are commonly used to design mitigation strategies. There is a growing awareness in the research community that energy transitions should be understood as socio-technical transitions and that energy scenario construction should reflect this fact. This paper presents an application of a socio-technical scenario building method for improving long-term scenarios and strategies for the energy...
Dec 2019
Abstract Communities around the world are already enduring both direct and indirect impacts of anthropogenic climate change, leading to questions about accountability. Over the past decade, the scientific, legal, and policy communities have grown increasingly concerned with the question of accountability for the social losses and damages (L&D) stemming from climate change, evidenced by the development of the scientific attribution research field, legal cases against fossil...
Dec 2019
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